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Bullish or bearish, which way are we leaning folks?
Here's a bunch of charts, laying out either case.
Let's get stuck in👇
First of, 2 rate cuts until end of year remain priced with more than 95% probability (see turquoise box)
Yield curves have uninverted and are ticking higher.
10-year to 3-months & 10-year to 2-year have keep on steepening, which may actually lead to better numbers in banks' earnings reports going forward, which may help the over all market
(we address the current bank reserve stress further down in the bearish section)
Bond market volatility remains at historically low levels
The historical median is at 93.8, while we are currently still way below, at 79.9.
Why could bond market volatility tick higher?
One reason could be trade war escalation. But how likely is an escalation?
According to Polymarket odds across different bets, such an escalation does not seem likely right now!
Structurally, S&P 500 operating earnings per share continue to move higher, with analysts projecting earnings to rise further into ‘26 (see below).
And yes, this is a chart that's related to the AI bubble talk!
High-tech’s share of capital spending in nominal gdp seems to be in for another move higher, which should support spending and liquidity!
Last but not least, the Russel 2000 Index reached a new all-time high just now.
Against Nasdaq, small cap stocks have broken out of a 3-year downtrend and seem to be actually sustaining the breakout.
Now, are small cap stocks just experiencing a crack up boom before a significant drawdown kicks in?
Let's now lay out some of the bearish findings/charts👇
Utilities are leading YTD performance!
This often leans bearish or late-cycle, unless the rally is due to falling interest rates rather than risk aversion...
But what if things are indeed turning sour as we speak?
The financial plumbing stress is ticking higher and is showing up in funding rates. SOFR is above IORB, which is telling you about liquidity issue…
Bank reserves are getting scarcer, which leaves banks scrambling for them.
Why now?
Well, the currently ongoing government shutdown does not help. In fact, the gov't shutdown is creating additional disinflationary forces under the hood as now spending is reaching the economy.
Given that fiscal is quite a heavy support by now, this is liquidity negative!
And it looks like, this could go on until mid-November (see Polymarket odds), which would only exacerbate the situation.
And yes, we can see that regional banks are down, indicating that bank reserve stress is real.
Could this actually force the Fed’s hand?
As a matter of fact, credit spreads have started to move higher, which is never a good sign!
What if they are marching even higher?
Last but not least, here’s a chart for all the Bitcoiners:
there has never been "another wave" after a prolonged period in which the total BTC supply held in loss by long-term holders was at zero.
Cudos to @JustDeauIt for pointing out this one!
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